Many lottery fans sooner or later wonder: what is the probability of winning in a particular lottery.
Is there any chance to win a prize in lottery?
Almost any lottery ticket is a chance for a big win.
Indeed, this chance is not very big, the percentage of winning the lottery is very small, but still it is a chance: the one who did not buy a lottery ticket will definitely remain without a prize.
Every lottery ticket holder expects a big win: they can solve all their financial problems for a long time. However, almost every lottery has not only a significant jackpot, but also very large prizes of other categories.
Probability theory of winning the lottery
Of course, for each lottery, the exact probability of winning is known.
Without these calculation data, no lottery operator will be able to draw up the rules of the game in such a way as to remain profitable, pay off lottery distributors, pay for advertising, organize the broadcast of the draw on TV and pay all the prizes.
Calculating the probability of winning the lottery deals with the section of mathematics-probability theory and combinatorics. Without going into the formula for calculating the probability of winning the lottery, let me say that an important factor in determining the chances is the number of combinations that are possible in the results of the lottery draw.
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Which lottery is more likely to win?
Let’s look at which lottery is more likely to win. Below there’s a summary table of the probability of winning the lottery jackpot (the main super prize) of the most important world lotteries:
| Lottery | Formula | Odds of Winning |
|---|---|---|
| SuperEnalotto | 6/90 | 1 : 622,614,630 |
| Mega Millions | 5/75 + 1/15 | 1 : 302,575,350 |
| Powerball | 5/69 + 1/26 | 1 : 292,201,338 |
| EuroMillions | 5/50 + 2/12 | 1 : 139,838,160 |
| La Primitiva | 6/49 | 1 : 139,838,160 |
| Australian Oz Powerball | 7/35 + 1/20 | 1 : 134,490,400 |
| Lotto 6 aus 49 | 6/49 + 1/9 | 1 : 125,854,344 |
| EuroJackpot | 5/50 + 2/10 | 1 : 95,344,200 |
| Australian Oz Lotto | 7/45 | 1 : 45,379,620 |
| UK National Lottery | 6/59 | 1 : 45,057,474 |
| El Gordo | 5/54 | 1 : 31,625,100 |
| Ireland Lotto | 6/47 | 1 : 10,737,573 |
Prize categories and chances to win each world lottery:
| Match | Odds of Winning | Estimated Prize Fund |
|---|---|---|
| 5 plus Powerball | 1 in 292,201,338 | Jackpot |
| 5 | 1 in 11,688,054 | $1 million |
| 4 plus Powerball | 1 in 913,130 | $50,000 |
| 4 | 1 in 36,525 | $100.00 |
| 3 plus Powerball | 1 in 14,494 | $100.00 |
| 3 | 1 in 580 | $7.00 |
| 2 plus Powerball | 1 in 701 | $7.00 |
| 1 plus Powerball | 1 in 92 | $4.00 |
| Powerball | 1 in 38 | $4.00 |
| Match | Odds of Winning | Estimated Prize Fund |
|---|---|---|
| 5 + Mega Ball | 1 in 302,575,350 | Jackpot |
| 5 | 1 in 12,607,306 | $1 million |
| 4 + Mega Ball | 1 in 931,001 | $10,000 |
| 4 | 1 in 38,792 | $500.00 |
| 3 + Mega Ball | 1 in 14,547 | $200.00 |
| 2 + Mega Ball | 1 in 693 | $10.00 |
| 3 | 1 in 606 | $10.00 |
| 1 + Mega Ball | 1 in 89 | $4.00 |
| Mega Ball | 1 in 36 | $2.00 |
| Match | Odds of Winning | Estimated Prize Fund |
|---|---|---|
| 5 + 2 | 1 in 139,838,160 | 43.20% |
| 5 + 1 | 1 in 6,991,908 | 3.95% |
| 5 + 0 | 1 in 3,107,515 | 0.92% |
| 4 + 2 | 1 in 621,503 | 0.45% |
| 4 + 1 | 1 in 31,076 | 0.48% |
| 3 + 2 | 1 in 14,126 | 0.67% |
| 4 + 0 | 1 in 13,812 | 0.38% |
| 2 + 2 | 1 in 986 | 1.75% |
| 3 + 1 | 1 in 707 | 1.85% |
| 3 + 0 | 1 in 314 | 3.50% |
| 1 + 2 | 1 in 188 | 4.95% |
| 2 + 1 | 1 in 50 | 14.85% |
| 2 + 0 | 1 in 22 | 18.25% |
| Match | Odds of Winning | % of Prize Fund |
|---|---|---|
| 5 + 2 | 1 in 95,344,200 | 36% |
| 5 + 1 | 1 in 5,959,013 | 8.5% |
| 5 + 0 | 1 in 3,405,150 | 3% |
| 4 + 2 | 1 in 423,752 | 1% |
| 4 + 1 | 1 in 26,485 | 0.9% |
| 4 + 0 | 1 in 15,134 | 0.7% |
| 3 + 2 | 1 in 9,631 | 0.6% |
| 3 + 1 | 1 in 672 | 3.1% |
| 2 + 2 | 1 in 602 | 3% |
| 3 + 0 | 1 in 344 | 4.3% |
| 1 + 2 | 1 in 128 | 7.8% |
| 2 + 1 | 1 in 42 | 19.1% |
| Numbers to Match | Odds of Winning | Prize Value |
|---|---|---|
| 6 Numbers (jackpot) | 1 in 45,057,474 | Jackpot |
| 5 Numbers + Bonus Ball | 1 in 7,509,579 | £1,000,000 (fixed) |
| 5 Numbers | 1 in 144,415 | £ 1,750 (fixed) |
| 4 Numbers | 1 in 2,180 | £140 (fixed) |
| 3 Numbers | 1 in 97 | £30 (fixed) |
| 2 Numbers | 1 in 10.3 | Free Lotto Lucky Dip (fixed) |
| Match | Win | Odds of Winning |
|---|---|---|
| Match 6 | Jackpot | 1 in 622,614,630 |
| Match 5 + Jolly | Estimated €311,000 | 1 in 103,769,105 |
| Match 5 | Estimated €32,000 | 1 in 1,250,230 |
| Match 4 | Estimated €300 | 1 in 11,907 |
| Match 3 | Estimated €25 | 1 in 327 |
| Match 2 | Estimated €5 | 1 in 22 |
| Tier | Match | Odds of Winning | % of Prize Pool |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 + Superzahl | 1 in 125,854,344 | 12.80% |
| 2 | Match 6 | 1 in 15,537,573 | 10% |
| 3 | 5 + Superzahl | 1 in 542,008 | 5% |
| 4 | Match 5 | 1 in 60,223 | 15% |
| 5 | 4 + Superzahl | 1 in 10,234 | 5% |
| 6 | Match 4 | 1 in 1,147 | 10% |
| 7 | 3 + Superzahl | 1 in 567 | 10% |
| 8 | Match 3 | 1 in 63 | 45% |
| 9 | 2 + Superzahl | 1 in 76 | Fixed amount* |
| Prize Divisions | Match | Winning Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Level 1 | 7 + Powerball | 1 in 134,490,400 |
| Level 2 | 7 | 1 in 7,078,443 |
| Level 3 | 6 + Powerball | 1 in 686,176 |
| Level 4 | 6 | 1 in 36,115 |
| Level 5 | 5 + Powerball | 1 in 16,943 |
| Level 6 | 4 + Powerball | 1 in 1,173 |
| Level 7 | 5 | 1 in 892 |
| Level 8 | 3 + Powerball | 1 in 188 |
| Level 9 | 2 + Powerball | 1 in 66 |
| Match | Odds of Winning | Percentage of Prize Fund |
|---|---|---|
| Match 7 | 1 in 45,379,620 | 40% |
| Match 6 plus either supplementary | 1 in 3,241,401 | 1.7% |
| Match 6 | 1 in 180,078 | 3.5% |
| Match 5 plus either supplementary | 1 in 29,602 | 1.8% |
| Match 5 | 1 in 3,430 | 2.1% |
| Match 4 | 1 in 154 | 24% |
| Match 3 plus either supplementary | 1 in 87 | 26.9% |
Which lottery is better to play?
There is no definite answer
Of course, the probability of winning the super prize lottery is not the only factor when deciding to buy a lottery ticket.
Based on the above information, you may not play the popular Italian lottery SuperEnalotto, although the lottery offers large winning categories besides the jackpot.
The lottery with the highest probability of winning, as a rule, is able to accumulate less significant prizes than lotteries in which the probability of winning is less. This is very logical, because lottery operators are not charitable organizations, and form a prize Fund from the money from the sale of tickets.
An important factor is the amount of the accumulated jackpot. The bigger the jackpot, the more opportunities are given to players if they win it.
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